17 September 2008

Pakistan's New President: Will Things Change? Don't Bet on It



It's official: Asif Ali Zardari, widower of ex-prime minister Benazir Bhutto and co-chairman of his party the PPP, has won a landslide victory for the Pakistani presidency. In fact, the margin of victory was so great that he actually begun celebrations before the election results were even out. Read The NY Times Report Here.

But don't be too optimistic for change just yet: behind the superficial smiles and festivity lies very serious issues with the country that Zardari will soon be forced to face. From local residents to hostile neighbour India - even distant Washington - a lot of questions are being asked: Will Pakistan improve economically? Will it continue to play a two-faced game in the war on terror? Or will it sink into the depths of corruption once again? It's all hard to say.

What is certain, however, is that the election was considered a great success for democracy and signified the dawn of a new age in Pakistan. In fact, waves of optimism are currently skyrocketing with hope over the possibility of increased stability within the Middle East and the lowering of regional tensions. Nevertheless, two main issues still need to be addressed:

  • Terrorism

One of the primary concerns, especially for the United States, would be Pakistan's allegiance regarding the war on terror. Washington has long been fed up with Musharraf's two-faced balancing game and has threatened on multiple occasions to cut off the billions of US dollars flowing into Pakistan as aid.

The problem is this: Neither the US nor Pakistan has ever officially admitted it, but it is an established policy that the US uses unmanned aircraft and missile strikes to eliminate terrorist targets in Pakistan. And while it may be true that up till now Pakistan have yet to object and has even helped in covering it up, the recent change in power makes the situation much more murky - Will Pakistan still tolerate continued violation of it's national sovereignty? If the billions of US dollars stop flowing in, probably not.

And while Zardari might had made promises to fight domestic terrorists, that certainly doesn't mean he has to do it Washington's way. It true: Pakistan still definitely wants the US as an ally for the economical benefits - but that also doesn't mean it's willing to risk regional hostility towards itself as well. It's a difficult game to play. Inevitably, Zardari might be eventually forced to carefully tread down the same "double-agent" path Musharaff did.


For a greater understanding of Pakistan and it's two-faced stance on terrorism, visit PBS Frontline.

  • Leadership

There are also a few distinct problems with Zardari's leadership. First of all, although Zardari appears to have no problems when gathering support, he has little to no experience on the actual governing itself. Secondly, Zardari has also yet to shake off the allegations of corruption and win over the full faith of the people. But while it's undeniable that Zardari, on paper, might not be the ideal leader Pakistan is looking for, that's also an issue thats no longer important: The man is already elected.

The real cause for concern is the big question if he will start handing down much of the substantial presidental powers that ex-president Musharaff has gathered over the years. Now Zardari has made the verbal agreements and subtle suggestions that he would do so, but it ultimately still remains to be seen if his actions will follow. If he does so, however, much of the power is likely to be transferred down to the Prime Minister.

When interviewed by a CNN correspondent about such concerns, Zardari replied this: "Challenges are manys. But those are mostly for the Prime Minister and the Government ... I intend to [hand over power] ... I will hand over as much power as the government desires."


Either way, the Pakistani voters have already made their choice. But what will be Zardari's next move? The world is watching.

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